Part 4 of this series focuses on America’s vital national energy security need to transition, in an orderly manner, from fossil fuels to U.S. sustainable energy. As explained in detail in my eBook Astroelectricity and briefly discussed here, GEO space solar power—astroelectricity—is the only practicable way for the United States to replace fossil fuels. To do this, America must build sustainable electrical power generating capacity equivalent to 2,000 Hoover Dams in geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). (This is roughly equivalent to 4,000 1-GW nuclear power plants. ) As, obviously, this cannot happen quickly, doing so in an orderly manner necessitates that America move aggressively to implement a National Astroelectricity Program similar to the hydroelectricity dam programs of the 1930s.
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Want no longer needs to drive warfare
Firmly embedded in animal culture—far predating modern humans—is the instinctual urge to seize what is wanted. For animals, hunger is the primary driver with mating close behind. Bigger/more aggressive animals will use their advantage to take what they want from smaller/weaker animals. This is a fundamental law of nature.
Through the present, this has been central to the emergence and growth of human culture, especially regarding obtaining food and other natural resources critical to survival. Wars, going back to the earliest recorded history, have been and continue to be fought to have access to and control over vital resources.
Spacefaring technologies, fortunately, will change this. By becoming a true human spacefaring nation, America will gain access to the truly immense natural resources of the solar system. Except for food, everything that our industrial society needs can be obtained in space where there is sufficient “plenty” to enable cooperation rather than confrontation. Recognition of this potential is a game changer in terms of national security and domestic and foreign policy. For America, it is the peaceful counter to China’s “One Road One Belt” approach to world cultural and economic domination. This starts with securing space-based sustainable energy.
The importance of energy security
I will be blunt. Do you take America’s national energy security seriously?
Prior to World War II, the United States was a major exporter of oil. Hence, it was fossil fuel energy secure. (The other two major oil exporters were Russia and Romania.) As a primary supplier of oil to Japan, U.S. President Roosevelt attempted to use an embargo of America’s export of oil (and other products) to alter Japan’s militaristic foreign policies.
Japan’s scarcity of domestic fossil fuel and other key industrial natural resources was a primary reason for its warfare in the Pacific since the 1890s. This scarcity arose as Japan began to industrialize in the mid-1800s. Industrial societies have substantially different natural resource needs than feudal/agrarian societies such as Japan had been. Japan quickly recognized the need to seek these now vital resources elsewhere. Since the late 1800s, Japan had been working to use its growing military capabilities to expand its political and economic sphere of influence in the Pacific.
Prior to World War I, Japan twice defeated Russia to prevent Russia from impeding Japan’s plans to expand its influence into Manchuria and Korea. Just as Japan had done in 1905 with a surprise attack on Russia after negotiations had reached an impasse, Japan surprise attacked the U.S. Navy to prevent the United States from opposing further Japanese conquest and expansion. Japan had been preparing militarily for this for over a generation, building substantial land armies, air forces, and naval capabilities, including the world’s leading aircraft carrier force.
Today, lacking aircraft carriers to project air power, China is building islands in the disputed South China Sea from which to project military power. The intent is to assert control over undersea oil and gas fields and to place at risk commercial ocean and airborne trade providing it with diplomatic and economic advantage. Obviously, this is also being done to counter U.S. military, economic, and diplomatic influence in the area. The seeds of a new major war in the Pacific are being planted. But, is warfare over oil inevitable? What if this can be avoided?
U.S. fossil fuel energy insecurity
The above figure charts America’s historical energy use from 1850-2015. During this time, Americans consumed the equivalent of 925 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) of fossil fuels. Since 1970 much of the oil consumed was imported.
By 2100, as explained in my book, the U.S. population may be expected to increase to, at least, 500 million. Most of the roughly 56 percent increase will be due to net international migration into the United States. (This is without “open borders”.) By 2100, the annual total energy needs of the United States will climb 50 percent assuming, as explained in my book, a modest decline in per capita energy use.
If the percentage of total energy today derived from fossil fuels—about 80 percent—is held constant, through 2100 the United States will need 1,540 billion BOE more of fossil fuels. Where do you think this will come from? What about after 2100?
Notes:
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table 9.1, Technically recoverable U.S. Crude oil resources as of January 1, 2014, Chapter 9, Oil and Gas Supply Module, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016, page 132, January 2017.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table 9.2, Technically recoverable U.S. dry natural gas resources as of January 1, 2014, Chapter 9, Oil and Gas Supply Module, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016, page 133, January 2017.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Table 15, Recoverable Coal Reserves at Producing Mines, Estimated Recoverable Reserves, and Demonstrated Reserve Base by Mining Method, Annual Coal Report 2015, November 2016.
- 1cu. ft. natural gas = 1,028 Btu; 1,000,000 cu. ft. = 177.2 BOE; 1 short ton of coal = 19.988 million Btu; 1 short ton = 3.45 BOE
Today, the total projected U.S. technically recoverable fossil fuel resources stands at about 1,600 billion BOE. Most of this is in coal as shown in the above table. Obviously, these fuel sources will become increasingly expensive with time. Waiting to undertake the transition would, then, be done when the economy is already under stress by higher energy costs. With a straight face, can we assert that the United States is fossil fuel energy secure? Of course not!
Consequences of U.S. fossil fuel energy insecurity
Its been over 50 years since the first imported oil crisis in the United States. The United States became substantially dependent on imported oil about 1970. Just as the United States tried to do with Japan in 1940-41, within just three years OPEC tried to use an oil embargo to force the United States to change its foreign policy from supporting Israel during the 1973-74 Arab-Israeli War. While the United States maintained support for Israel, the embargo resulted in a prolonged recession and substantially higher oil prices.
The 1973 and 1979 oil crises impacted per capita energy use in the United States. For industrialized economies, per capita energy use is a measure of economic prosperity. The above chart plots U.S. per capita energy use from 1950-2015. Note that while the 1973-74 oil embargo only lasted about six months, the resulting substantially higher oil prices caused a recession that lasted until almost 1978.
The second oil crisis—beginning in late 1979 following U.S. embassy personnel in Iran being taken as hostages—caused another oil shortage and further oil price increases. U.S. per capita energy use fell almost 15 percent within four years and did not return to normal until 1996.
In 2000, world oil prices began to climb. The United States, being substantially dependent on imported oil, saw rising gasoline prices. This helped to precipitate the banking crisis as people needing to work and do other necessary travel prioritized energy expenditures over home mortgages. In 2008, the economy went into a prolonged recession from which per capita energy use still, as of 2015, had not returned to normal.
As shown in the above chart, a straight line connecting the maximum annual per capita energy use indicates what level of per capita energy use the U.S. economy would need in good economic times. The difference between this ideal and the lower actual usage indicates the impact of energy shortages and higher prices had on the overall U.S. economy. The lost economic potential is highlighted in the chart. Fossil fuel energy insecurity robs America of prosperity.
Today, fossil fuels provide about 80 percent of the energy Americans consume. Consider the future impact of energy shortages, higher energy prices, and forced rationing of fossil fuels to “fight” CO2 emissions on per capita energy use and U.S. economic prosperity. What would happen if, legally, the U.S. Government had to impose a 25 percent reduction in consumption through rationing or carbon
An orderly transition to sustainable energy
The above chart illustrates what an orderly transition for the United States to 100 percent sustainable energy by 2100 could look like. To undertake this transition by 2100, the United States will need to build new generating capacity equivalent to nearly 2,500 Hoover Dams. Obviously, this will take several generations to complete even with an Apollo program-type national priority.
The chart also illustrates that during this transition, the United States will still need roughly 867 billion BOE of fossil fuels—primarily oil and natural gas. Fortunately, due to the fracking revolution in the United States, the entire 867 billion BOE could be produced domestically. When combined with an aggressive plan to build the necessary replacement sustainable energy sources by 2100, the United States would become energy independent. The United States would not need to fight any future oil wars.
Astroelectricity is the only way to go
As explained in my eBook Astroelectricity: Why American engineers should advocate for GEO space solar power to end America’s CO2 emissions, make America energy secure, and prepare America for the 22nd century, there are no terrestrial nuclear or renewable energy solutions that can practicably be scaled up to replace fossil fuels. Reasonably, we may expect these terrestrial solutions to provide, at best, 20 percent of the roughly 5,000 GW of baseload electrical generating capacity needed by 2100. The rest—equal to 2,000 Hoover Dams— will need to come from space-based sustainable energy.
There is only one rational conclusion to reach: To address CO2, avoid energy impoverishment, and future wars over diminishing fossil fuel resources, America must transition, in an orderly manner, to 100 percent sustainable energy. The only practical way to do this and maintain our economic prosperity is to undertake a National Astroelectricity Program to industrialize space to build GEO space solar power systems.
Undertaking all of this will require establishing immense new U.S. space mining, space manufacturing, space power, and astrologistics industries. This will also require a forward-deployed U.S. Space Force to protect and defend these critical national resources and a U.S. Space Guard to enforce U.S. law and provide emergency aid. To achieve this, America will necessarily become a true human spacefaring nation with commercial operations throughout the central solar system. Isn’t this an exciting future!!
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James Michael (Mike) Snead is an aerospace Professional Engineer in the United States, an Associate Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), and a past chair of the AIAA’s Space Logistics Technical Committee. He is the founder and president of the Spacefaring Institute LLC (spacefaringinstitute.net) which is focused on space solar power-generated astroelectricity and the astrologistics infrastructure necessary to enable the spacefaring industrial revolution that will build space solar power energy systems. Mike Snead has been involved in space development since the mid-1980s when he supported the U.S. Air Force Transatmospheric Vehicle (TAV) studies, the National Aerospace Plane program, and the Delta Clipper Experimental (DC-X) project. In 2007, after retiring from civilian employment with the Air Force, he began to study the need for (and politics associated with) undertaking space solar power. Beginning in the late 1980s, he has published numerous papers and articles on various aspects of manned spaceflight, astrologistics, and energy. His technical papers are located at https://www.mikesnead.com and https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mike-Snead/research. His blog is at: https://spacefaringamerica.com. His eBook, Astroelectricity, can be downloaded for free here. He can be contacted through LinkedIn or through email sent to spacefaringinstitute@gmail.com.