The United States is now the most energy secure and prosperous in nearly 50 years. Being substantially dependent on fossil fuels, this situation is, of course, temporary. With some 2020 presidential candidates advocating substantial changes to our energy infrastructure, I have put together five charts to explain why energy security is vital to national economic prosperity and how our substantial dependence on fossil fuels threatens our future security and prosperity.
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Most don’t immediately connect prosperity with energy use. My research into America’s past and future energy security has identified linkages that should be understood, especially with various proposals for “remaking” America’s energy infrastructure by leading presidential candidates. I have developed five charts, covering the period of 1970–2018, that illustrate the relationship between energy security and prosperity. The five charts are:
- U.S. per capita energy use (1970–2018) (Barrels of oil equivalent/year.) Per capita energy use is the total energy consumed in the United States divided by the population at that time.
- U.S. unemployment rate (1970–2018) (Percentage)
- U.S. energy expenditures (1970–2017) (Percentage of GDP)
- U.S. annual energy expenditures per capita (1970–2017) (2018 $$)
- U.S. energy imports (1970-2018) (Percentage)
These charts cover the period of 1970 to the present. 1970 was when U.S. domestic conventional oil production peaked and began to decline, making America increasingly energy insecure. The last chart, chart 5, shows the history of total U.S. energy imports as a percentage of the total U.S. energy use. In 1970, the United States was importing about 9 percent of its total energy, mostly from imported oil. This climbed to 30 percent in 2005–2006 as domestic conventional oil and natural gas production continued to decline.
In the early 1970s, even as the United States became increasingly energy insecure, the per capita use of energy continued to climb reaching a historic high of 62 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per year in 1973. In just three years, energy imports had climbed to nearly 17 percent of the total energy consumed—nearly doubling as a percentage of total energy consumed.
The 1970s were turbulent times with the Vietnam War long underway and substantial unrest in the Middle East due to the 1956 and 1967 wars between Israel and its Arab neighbors. At the same time, the growing U.S. dependence on imported oil, largely from the Middle East, gave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) political power.
In the fall of 1973, after years of failed attempts by the United States to negotiate a peace, several Arab countries launched a surprise attack on Israel. After heavy initial losses, the Israeli military turned the tide, threatening military conquest of the attacking states. The Soviets, who had supplied the Arab states, started to resupply their allies. When the United States prepared to do the same for Israel, OPEC threatened a boycott of oil exports to the United States—leveraging America’s growing dependence on its oil. When the U.S. resupply began, the oil embargo also began creating oil shortages in the United States and rising world oil prices.
As seen in Charts 3 and 4, the U.S. energy expenditure as a percentage of the GDP and the per capita energy expenditures rose sharply as Americans attempted to keep living normally. For middle-class folks, most energy expense is hidden or unavoidable, such as fueling the family car. Rising energy prices brought inflation and higher direct energy costs. Spending priorities in family budgets changed with discretionary spending declining. Charts 1 and 2 show the consequences of the shortages and rising energy prices with a sharp decline in the per capita energy use and rising unemployment. Per capita energy use and prosperity were clearly linked due to the large dependence on imported energy.
Despite continued high energy prices, within five years the per capita energy use and unemployment returned to pre-1973 oil embargo levels. These two data points are the most energy per capita that America has used. I use these two points as an indication of full prosperity. When per capita energy use falls below these values, it indicates a loss of middle-class prosperity.
Just as life was getting back to normal, in 1979 Iranian religious revolutionaries overthrew the U.S.-backed monarch. Iranian revolutionaries stormed the U.S. embassy and took Americans hostages. Oil purchases from Iran, then a primary supplier to the United States, ended creating new oil shortages. Threatened by the Iranian revolution, Iraq went to war with Iran in 1980. As the war lasted for years, Iranian oil production collapsed creating significant world oil supply shortages and even higher prices.
As seen in Chart 3, U.S. energy expenditures rose to 13 percent of the GDP by 1981 compared to the 5 percent in prosperous times. Expressed in 2018 dollars, per capita energy expenditures rose above $5,000 per year—$20,000 for a family of four. The recession that began in 1979 with the initial oil shock deepened until unemployment hit 10 percent in 1982. Per capita energy use and unemployment did not return to “prosperity” levels until 1989. Again, per capita energy use was linked to middle-class prosperity by the supply and price uncertainties of America’s dependence on imported energy.
It is interesting to note that energy imports fell during this time. The Alaska pipeline, started after the 1973 crisis, opened while oil price controls and natural gas production and distribution restrictions were eased—all stimulating increased domestic supply. Briefly, America became more energy independent. However, as shown in Chart 5, a growing population and increasing per capita energy use soon forced growing energy imports of both oil and natural gas. For twenty years, from 1985–2005, energy imports steadily rose. This increasing energy insecurity forced American military involvement in the Middle East bringing two wars, trillions in debt, and thousands of lost lives. There is a very real price for American energy insecurity.
After the Iran–Iraq War ended, Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, seizing Kuwaiti oil fields. A coalition led by the United States retook Kuwait and invaded Iraq. This reestablished a strong U.S. military presence in the Middle East leading to a measure of normalcy in oil prices and supply. The decade of the 1990s saw rising per capita energy use, declining unemployment, and declining U.S. total energy and per capita energy expenditures even as the percentage of energy imported continued to rise. This period of prosperity would end with the 11 September 2001 terrorist attack on the United States forcing renewed U.S. military engagement in the Middle East.
In 2002, rising world demand outstripped supply, forcing up prices. By 2008, per capita energy expenditures again exceeded $5,000 per year. Families were forced to spend nearly double on energy compared to the prosperous 1990s. This broke the family budget helping to precipitate increased mortgage defaults and the banking crisis. The banking crisis triggered the 2008 “Great Recession”. Per capita energy use which had been declining since 2000 due to rising energy costs, nosedived, remaining low ever since. Again, a declining per capita energy use signaled declining prosperity.
In 2008 the oil and natural gas “fracking” revolution began. With new hydraulic fracturing and guided drilling technologies that had been under development for a half-century, previously known but unexploitable shale deposits could be tapped. Within a decade, as shown in Chart 5, the United States has reached almost total energy independence—producing the equivalent of the energy consumed. This is, however, temporary and it is dangerous to conveniently ignore this fact.
Fossil fuels, as everyone knows, are non-renewable. Later this century, just as happened with conventional oil production around 1970, a peak in fracking oil and natural gas production will occur. Declining conventional oil production unavoidably led to warfare in the Middle East by the United States and our proxies. Unlike the 1970s, in the future the United States will be competing with China for imported oil making warfare with a nuclear-armed country a possibility. With even modest reductions in per capita energy use bringing deep and long recessions, the choice will be between warfare and a new great depression without end—unless we act smartly to avoid this dire choice!
Several 2020 presidential candidates are promising to substantially change America’s energy infrastructure. They wish to shift from fossil fuels to renewable sources within a very short time. I agree that to make America permanently energy secure, we need to end our fossil fuel use by transitioning to sustainable energy. As discussed in my eBook Astroelectricity, there is no practical way to replace America’s fossil fuel needs with terrestrial nuclear and/or renewable energy, such as ground solar and wind. (This $9.99 book can be read in about 2–3 hours and is written for the general public, not just engineers, concerned about energy and the environment. The above link provides more information about the book.) Hence, political proposals to go “green” within a short period of time using wind and ground solar are extremely unrealistic.
The only way to avoid future oil wars is to undertake an orderly transition to primarily GEO space solar power—astroelectricity. With the additional technically recoverable fossil fuel resources from fracking, the timeline for an orderly transition is to complete this is by 2100. Why so long? Because we will need to build the generating capacity equivalent to 2,000 Hoover Dams in GEO.
We must take advantage of the lower energy prices and increased supplies due to fracking to give America the time needed to undertake a spacefaring industrial revolution to build GEO space solar power. This is the only way we can avoid thrusting our children into future oil wars by enabling America to peacefully and prosperously go “green” using astroelectricity.
If not already following this blog, please click the “follow” button at the bottom right to sign up. Receiving notification via email is best to ensure that you do not miss a new posting. Sending notifications is the only use of your email address. It is not sold or used elsewhere. Besides, you can always unsubscribe. Please forward these postings to your friends who share your spacefaring interest. Also, please check out the Spacefaring Institute’s YouTube channel.
James Michael (Mike) Snead is an aerospace Professional Engineer in the United States, an Associate Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), and a past chair of the AIAA’s Space Logistics Technical Committee. He is the founder and president of the Spacefaring Institute LLC (spacefaringinstitute.net) which is focused on space solar power-generated astroelectricity and the astrologistics infrastructure necessary to enable the spacefaring industrial revolution that will build space solar power energy systems. Mike Snead has been involved in space development since the mid-1980s when he supported the U.S. Air Force Transatmospheric Vehicle (TAV) studies, the National Aerospace Plane program, and the Delta Clipper Experimental (DC-X) project. In 2007, after retiring from civilian employment with the Air Force, he began to study the need for (and politics associated with) undertaking space solar power. Beginning in the late 1980s, he has published numerous papers and articles on various aspects of manned spaceflight, astrologistics, and energy. His technical papers are located at https://www.mikesnead.com and https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mike-Snead/research. His blog is at: https://spacefaringamerica.com. His eBook, Astroelectricity, can be downloaded for free here. He can be contacted through LinkedIn or through email sent to spacefaringinstitute@gmail.com.